General Election generalisations

Hello again,

So this whole blog thing kind of lost momentum there didn’t it? Still, I’m trying to get back in the swing with a nice hefty post.

This morning I attended a panel discussion run by Gorkana, the PR and media database company, with some of the country’s best respected journos discussing the upcoming election.

It was a fascinating discussion from a diverse and opinionated panel, comprised of:

• Michael Wilson, former Business Editor of Sky News and panel chair
• George Pascoe-Watson, former Political Editor at The Sun and the self-proclaimed ‘mastermind’ behind the paper’s switch to the Conservatives
• Jeremy Warner, Assistant Editor for The Daily Telegraph
• Dan Roberts, Business Editor for The Guardian
• Iain Martin, Deputy Editor for The Wall Street Journal Europe and prolific blogger

It was a lively debate with some great insights and plenty of (polite) disagreement but a few key opinions and ideas really stood out for.  I’ve summarised some of these below with more to follow another day. Perhaps.

#1 It’s the economy, stupid

• All the panel agreed that this year’s election is going to be based on one thing: the economy
• Warner was adamant that the one thing British business cares about this year is the government deficit: they want to know how and when it will be reduced and, so far, neither Labour or the Conservatives have provided any real assurances in this regard
• According to Warner, ‘Brown’s own personal “killer app” is that he can claim to have single-handedly saved the UK from a second Great Depression’
• This means a lot is likely to depend on the economic results for the end of the first quarter, which will come out before the election. If Britain has slipped back into recession, Labour’s key message will be badly damaged.

#2 Labour aren’t doing well, the Conservatives are doing badly

• ‘In the future, the Conservatives campaign will be held up as an example of “how not to win an election”’ – Iain Martin
• The consensus was, given Labour and Gordon Brown’s record, it is astonishing that the parties are so close in the polls
• This can only be the fault of the Tories. In the words of Iain Martin, they should be ‘going to town with a baseball bat over Gordon Brown’s economic record’
• Instead, however, the Conservatives have been putting forward their own alternative proposals. This is a mistake because what they really need is…

#3 One clear message

• In the age of 24-hour news and the 7 second soundbite, you need a simple, clear message to stand out. This applies not just to politics but to all mainstream media campaigns.
• The Conservatives have been launching a wide variety of policies and changing their minds. In short, they have been saying too much
• Meanwhile, Labour (under the battle-scarred leadership of Mandelson and co) have been hammering away at one clear message: ‘take another look at the Tories’. This has started to stick.

#4 BUT we’re still heading for a Tory government

• Despite the recent collapse of the Tories’ poll lead, the panel all agreed the Conservatives are going to win
• Pascoe-Watson even predicted Conservatives would have an absolute majority of at least 40. The argument being that the Tories’ rebrand has been aimed at winning votes from the Lib Dems, who (in theory) would now prefer a Conservative government to a Labour one
• Apart from Brown, not even Labour believe they can win. Ministers don’t expect to be back in office and David Miliband is being positioned as the next Labour Leader.

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